Alfred 정현 Kim

2022년 8월 20일5분

Oh, semiconductor! To be or not to be, the question for Yoon Seokyeol and Lee Jaeyong.

2022년 11월 19일 업데이트됨

Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong was pardoned on August 15 with the president's authority. It has been a year since he was released on parole after serving a prison sentence for "state affairs manipulation." President Yoon Seok-yeol played a decisive role in investigating Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong and former President Park Geun Hye directly and putting them in prison when he was a prosecutor. There is no such bad relationship. Did Lee Jae-yong think that the prosecutor who captured him would become president and give him a special pardon?

It seems that things that were not seen when Yoon was a prosecutor began to appear when Yoon became president. Previous presidents also showed conflicting views before and after taking office, although there are differences in degree. That was especially true of economic policy. While the stage of activities of heads of large corporations is international, heavyweights often stay at home. In a way, it is natural that international economic issues, which were not seen before becoming president, begin to appear after becoming president.

It has passed 100 days since Yoon took office. Since taking office, the Yoon administration has put all its efforts into practical affairs rather than taking public opinion. Regarding the Yoon administration, some say it has already surpassed the achievements of the previous administration. What is clearly revealed is that the Yoon administration strongly agrees that fostering the semiconductor industry is not only a matter of living in Korea, but more of a matter of dying and living.

Samsung Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong is continuing his agressive move to secure competitiveness in semiconductor technology after receiving pardons from the Yoon government. In May, Samsung hired Yoon Seok-min, senior director of U.S. Ram Research, the world's third-largest semiconductor equipment company, as an executive (vice president) in charge of facility development at the facility technology research institute. In June, Yoon Se-seung, vice president of Qualcomm, was hired as an executive in charge of the foundry design platform development room. Samsung also plans to invest 250 trillion won (187 billion dollars) over 20 years to establish 11 semiconductor factories in the U.S.

In the same month, Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong decided to introduce next-generation EUV (Extreme ultra-violet) exposure equipment of Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML on a business trip to Europe. In this way, Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong has been taking care of semiconductor-related tasks for Samsung's technology super-gap strategy even when management rights are limited. He will attend the groundbreaking ceremony of the Giheung R&D Center as his first move after the pardon the source said. It can be interpreted as a willingness to empower technology management through the official activities of Vice Chairman Lee, who has become legally free.

Samsung recently succeeded in mass-producing 3-nano foundry for the first time in the world, but it is still in a difficult situation. TSMC, a Taiwanese semiconductor foundry (consignment production) company, has already overtaken Samsung in foundry field. In addition, through joint research and technology transfer with Japanese and U.S. companies, it is even planning to overtake Samsung in fields other than system semiconductors. It is not known when political risks will hamper Samsung again. When Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong was suffering from prosecution investigations and media flash baptism, TSMC slowly absorbed overseas technology and capital.

U.S. President Joe Biden visited South Korea before Japan on his first Asian tour in May. It is the first time in 60 years that a U.S. president has visited Korea before Japan. It is also the first time in 29 years that the U.S. president visited first, not the Korean president. U.S. President Bill Clinton visiting North Korea during the Kim Young-sam administration was the last time U.S. President visiting Korea first. The visit was made at a high speed 11 days after the inauguration of President Yoon Seok-yeol, so it was evaluated as taking care of the all-time Korea-U.S. alliance. During his visit to Seoul, President Biden urged South Korea to join the Chip 4 alliance in consideration of the reorganization of the semiconductor supply chain.

President Biden recently signed the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Promotion Act. The main focus is to invest $28.8 billion (about 366 trillion won) to develop the U.S. semiconductor industry and maintain its technological advantage. TSMC and Samsung, which have decided to build a semiconductor plant in the U.S., will benefit the most from the fund. However, if investment is received, investment in China will be restricted, and system semiconductors will not be able to make new investments in high-tech technologies which is more advance than 28 nanometers. It is possible to speculate that President Biden's trip to Asia and the creation of a semiconductor fund are actually a stepping stone for the U.S. to check Chinese semiconductor technology.

The U.S. already had requested Canada to arrest and lock Huawei's Vice Chairman Meng Wanzhou up in prison. She had spent two years and nine months in prison because Huawei was accused of posing a threat to U.S. national security. The owner and a vice president of Samsung, Korea's largest IT company, was imprisoned for political reasons. The owner and a vice president of China's largest IT company was also imprisoned for political reasons. It is undeniable that the technological hegemony war has already become an axis of political hegemony beyond the economic realm.

China has been a major supplier of memory semiconductors by establishing semiconductor clusters in Korea, China and Japan. At the same time, Korea served as a supplier for a large part of China's semiconductor self-sufficiency rate. China has a goal of 70% of semiconductor self-sufficiency by 2025. Self-sufficiency rate comprises the semiconductor production rate of companies with production destinations in China including foreign companies. If Samsung is a major supplier of memory semiconductor NAND flash, TSMC is a major supplier of foundry system semiconductors.

Meanwhile, as TSMC raised foundry prices by 8% and China suddenly blocked major cities, Samsung is facing excessive supply of semiconductor memory due to dropping NAND flash prices. It may be a coincidence, but in terms of the results alone, China's blockade policy and TSMC's price policy are combined to hurt Samsung. The U.S. also suffered economic damage of up to 300 trillion won in 2021 alone due to the lack of supply of semiconductors due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan, China. The number of cars that could not be made due to lack of semiconductors alone reached 254 trillion won.

The semiconductor industry is intertwined with supply chains and demand sources like spider webs. The aspect of war can be completely reversed depending on the state's policy, corporate technology, and cooperative relationships. The reason why U.S. President Joe Biden visited Korea before Japan for the first time in 60 years. This is why President Yoon Seok-yeol has no choice but to pardon Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong. Samsung's owner protects the company after successfully completing his term as president. It is Yoon Seok-yeol and Lee Jae-yong's live or die matter. It is fair to say that the fate of the two depends on the semiconductor industry strategy.

2022. 08. 18

Alfred J Kim CEO of BEXUS Group

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